Runoff Voters Will Do the Darndest Things: An Analysis of the 2008 Georgia Democratic Senate Runoff
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2011.32.0.301-317Abstract
Testing the frontrunner loses myth and minority loses myth, this paper examines the 2008 Georgia Democratic Senate runoff between Vernon Jones and Jim Martin. Despite winning 40 per-cent of the primary vote, Jones lost in the runoff to Jim Martin. Methods: We use a variety of data to determine what factors were having the greatest effect on the election. Results: Vernon Jones's strongest support came from the rural counties of central and southern Georgia. While Jones did win high levels of support in counties with large black populations, the fact that Jones was not performing as well in counties in metro Atlanta highlights that controversies surrounding Jones may have been playing a larger role than race. Conclusions: The lack of black voter turnout in the runoff illustrates the problems that even a black candidate has in motivating black voters to return for the runoff.References
Bauer, Monica, and John R. Hibbing. 1989. Which Incumbents Lose in House Elections: A Response to Jacobson.s .The Marginals Never Vanished.. American Journal of Political Science 33(1):262-271. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111262
Berry, William D., and Bradley C. Canon. 1993. Explaining the Competitiveness of Gubernatorial Primaries. Journal of Politics 55(2):454-471. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2132275
Black, Earl. 1983. A Theory of Southern Factionalism. Journal of Politics 45(3):594-614. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2130705
Black, Earl, and Merle Black. 1987. Politics and Society in the South. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Bullock, Charles S., and Loch K. Johnson. 1992. Runoff Elections in the United States. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press.
Bullock, Charles S., and Ronald Keith Gaddie. 1994. Runoffs in Jesse Jackson's Backyard. Social Science Quarterly 75(3):446-454.
Bullock, Charles S., Ronald Keith Gaddie, and Anders Ferrington. 2001. When Experience Fails: The Experience Factor in Congressional Runoffs. Legislative Studies Quarterly 26(1):31-43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/440402
Bullock, Charles S., Ronald Keith Gaddie, and Anders Ferrington. 2002. System Structure, Campaign Stimuli, and Voter Falloff. Journal of Politics 64(4):1210-1224. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.00170
Canon, Bradley C. 1978. .Factionalism in the South: A Test of Theory and a Revisitation of V.O. Key. American Journal of Political Science 22(4):833-848. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2110593
Engstrom, Richard L., and Richard N. Engstrom. 2008. The Majority Vote Rule and Runoff Primaries in the United States. Electoral Studies 27(3):407-416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.04.009
Ewing, Cortez A.M. 1953. Primary Elections in the South. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
Giles, Michael W., and Melanie Buckner. 1995. David Duke and the Electoral Politics of Racial Threat. In David Duke and the Politics of Race in the South, eds. John C. Kuzenski, Charles S. Bullock, III, and Ronald Keith Gaddie. Nashville, TN: Vanderbilt University Press.
Glaser, James M. 2006. The Primary Runoff as a Remnant of the Old South. Electoral Studies 25(4):776-790. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2006.01.003
Key, V.O. 1949. Southern Politics in State and Nation. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Miller, Warren E., and J. Merrill Shanks. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Niou, Emerson M.S. 2001. Strategic Voting under Plurality and Runoff Rules. Journal of Theoretical Politics. 13(2):209-227. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0951692801013002004
Parker, Frank R. 1990. Black Votes County: Political Empowerment in Mississippi after 1965. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.5149/9780807869697_parker
Patterson, Beeman C. 1983. The Three Rs Revisited: Redistricting, Race, and Represen-tation in North Carolina. Phylon 44(3):232-243. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/274935
Pierce, Greg. 2007. Inside Politics. Washington Times. July 24, p. A6.
Smith, Ben. 2008. Vernon Jones Comes Out Swinging Against .Loser. Democrats. Atlanta Journal-Constitution. 30 April 2008, 1A.
White, Theodore. 1984. Jackson, Democratic Revolutionary. New York Times. April 5, p. 1A.
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Steven J. Rosenstone. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Wright, Stephen G. 1989. Voter Turnout in Runoff Elections. Journal of Politics 51(2): 385-396. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2131348
Wright, Stephen G., and William H. Riker. 1989. Plurality and Runoff Systems and Numbers of Candidates. Public Choice 60(2):155-175. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00149243
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with American Review of Politics agree to the following terms:
The Author retains copyright in the Work, where the term “Work” shall include all digital objects that may result in subsequent electronic publication or distribution.
Upon acceptance of the Work, the author shall grant to the Publisher the right of first publication of the Work.
The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License or its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:
Attribution: other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;
Non-Commercial: the materials may not be used for commercial purposes;
Share Alike: If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
with the understanding that the above condition can be waived with permission from the Author and that where the Work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license.
The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a pre-publication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (see The Effect of Open Access). Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.
Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.
The Author represents and warrants that:
the Work is the Author’s original work;
the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;
the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;
the Work has not previously been published;
the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and
the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.
The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 6 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.