The Disappearing Middle: An Incumbency-Based Explanation For The Decline of Congressional Moderates
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2002.23.0.225-243Abstract
Why has Congress become more partisan? We offer and test an explanation for the rise of institutional partisanship. Relative to their peers, ideologically moderate House incumbents from electorally unsafe seats are more likely to attract quality challengers, have smaller vote shares, and have a higher defeat rate. A growing quality effect, though, has insulated these moderate members electorally over time allowing them to cast more ideological votes. We test this explanation using district and member-level data for House elections from 1952 to1998 and find evidence confirming our expectations.References
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