The Determinants and Consequences of District Partisan Change and Intactness in the Congressional Redistricting Process: An Integrative Model

Authors

  • Richard Born Vassar College

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-779X.2016.35.2.48-72

Abstract

In this study of redistricting from 1992 to 2012, we develop an integrative path analysis model that links together the two parts of the congressional redistricting process: the impact of political and environmental antecedent variables on district partisan change and constituency intactness, and the subsequent impact that partisan chance and intactness have on incumbent reelection margin. Environmental factors, most notably the extent of a district’s overor under-population prior to redistricting, are found to ultimately make more difference on safety than does party control of the redistricting plan. Furthermore, the pathways extending through partisan change are more important for members’ reelection margin than are the pathways extending through intactness. Since members typically end up with a sizable share of new constituents, however, whereas a fairly even balance exists between districts left with pro-incumbent or anti-incumbent partisan change, the average member actually has somewhat more to fear from the former product of the redistricting process.

Author Biography

Richard Born, Vassar College

Professor of Political Science

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 2010. The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Allison, Paul D. 1990. "Change Scores as Dependent Variables in Regression Analysis." Sociological Methodology 20: 93-114. https://doi.org/10.2307/271083

Ansolabehere, Stephen, James M. Snyder, Jr., and Charles Stewart, III. 2000. "Old Voters,New Voters, and the Personal Vote: Using Redistricting to Measure the Incumbency Advantage." American Journal of Political Science 44 (January): 17-34. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669290

Boatright, Robert G. 2004. "Static Ambition in a Changing World: Legislators' Preparations for, and Responses to, Redistricting." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4 (Winter): 436-54. https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000400400405

Bollen, Kenneth A. 1989. Structural Equations with Latent Variables. New York: John Wiley and Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118619179

Bullock III, Charles S. 2010. Redistricting: The Most Political Activity in America. Lanham, MD.: Rowman and Littlefield.

Canes-Wrone, Brandice, David W. Brady, and John F. Cogan. 2002. "Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members' Voting." American Political Science Review 96 (March): 127-40. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055402004276

Carson, Jamie L., Gregory Koger, Matthew J. Lebo, and Everett Young. 2010. "The Electoral Costs of Party Loyalty in Congress." American Journal of Political Science 54 (July): 598-616. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00449.x

Crespin, Michael H. 2005. "Using Geographic Information Systems to Measure District Change, 2000-2002." Political Analysis 13 (No. 3): 253-60. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpi016

Desposato, Scott W., and John R. Petrocik. 2003. "The Variable Incumbency Advantage: New Voters, Redistricting, and the Personal Vote." American Journal of Political Science 47 (January): 18-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5907.00002

———. 2005. "Redistricting and Incumbency: The New Voter Effect." In Redistricting in the New Millennium, ed. Peter F. Galderisi. Lanham, MD.: Lexington Books.

Forgette, Richard, and Glenn Platt. 2005. "Redistricting Principles and Incumbency Protection in the U.S. Congress." Political Geography 24 (November): 934-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2005.05.002

Friedman, John N., and Richard T. Holden. 2009. "The Rising Incumbent Reelection Rate: What's Gerrymandering Got to Do with It?" Journal of Politics 71 (April): 593-611. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609090483

Hayes, Danny, and Seth C. McKee. 2009. "The Participatory Effects of Redistricting." American Journal of Political Science 53 (October): 1006-23. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00413.x

Hood III, M. V., and Seth C. McKee. 2010. "Stranger Danger: Redistricting, Incumbent Recognition, and Vote Choice." Social Science Quarterly 91 (June): 344-58. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00696.x

———. 2013. "Unwelcome Constituents: Redistricting and Countervailing Partisan Tides." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 13 (June): 203-24.

Hu, Li-tze, and Peter M. Bentler. 1999. "Cutoff Criteria for Fit Indexes in Covariance Structure Analysis: Conventional Criteria versus New Alternatives." Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal 6 (No. 1): 1-55.

Jacobson, Gary C. 1990. "The Effects of Campaign Spending in House Elections: New Evidence for Old Arguments." American Journal of Political Science 34 (May): 334-362. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450

———. 2011. A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People, 2nd ed., New York: Pearson.

Liker, Jeffrey K., Sue Augustyniak, and Greg J. Duncan. 1985. "Panel Data and Models of Change: A Comparison of First Difference and Conventional Two-Wave Models." Social Science Research 14 (March): 80-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/0049-089X(85)90013-4

Loehlin, John C. 2004. Latent Variable Models: An Introduction to Factor, Path, and Structural Equation Analysis. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

McDonald, Michael P. 2004. "A Comparative Analysis of Redistricting Institutions in the United States, 2001-02." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4 (Winter): 371-95. https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000400400402

McKee, Seth C. 2008a. "The Effects of Redistricting on Voting Behavior in Incumbent U.S. House Elections, 1992-1994." Political Research Quarterly 61 (March): 122-33. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907306473

———. 2008b. "Redistricting and Familiarity with U.S. House Candidates." American Politics Research 36 (November): 962-79.

———. 2010. Republican Ascendancy in Southern U.S. House Elections. Boulder, CO: Westview.

———. 2013. "Political Conditions and the Electoral Effects of Redistricting." American Politics Research 41 (July): 623-46.

Rush, Mark E. 2000. Does Redistricting Make a Difference?: Partisan Representation and Electoral Behavior. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.

Yoshinaka, Antoine, and Chad Murphy. 2009. "Partisan Gerrymandering and Population Instability: Completing the Redistricting Puzzle." Political Geography 28 (November): 451-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2009.10.011

———. 2011. "The Paradox of Redistricting: How Partisan Mapmakers Foster Competition but Disrupt Representation." Political Research Quarterly 64 (June):435-47.

Downloads

Published

2016-12-06

Issue

Vol. 35 No. 2 (2016)

Section

Articles

License

Authors who publish with American Review of Politics agree to the following terms:

  1. The Author retains copyright in the Work, where the term “Work” shall include all digital objects that may result in subsequent electronic publication or distribution.

  2. Upon acceptance of the Work, the author shall grant to the Publisher the right of first publication of the Work.

  3. The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License or its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:

    1. Attribution: other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;

    2. Non-Commercial: the materials may not be used for commercial purposes;

    3. Share Alike: If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.

with the understanding that the above condition can be waived with permission from the Author and that where the Work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license.

  1. The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.

  2. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a pre-publication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (see The Effect of Open Access). Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.

  3. Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.

  1. The Author represents and warrants that:

    1. the Work is the Author’s original work;

    2. the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;

    3. the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;

    4. the Work has not previously been published;

    5. the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and

    6. the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.

  2. The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 6 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.