Rediscovering Partisanship as the Long Term Force in the Vote Decision
While partisanship is commonly conceived as the long term force in the voting decision, most models of voter choice include contemporaneous measures of partisanship, as well as issue preferences and retrospective evaluations as explanatory variables. In this paper, I use four multiyear panel studies spanning half a century to examine how well prior partisanship predicts future vote. Prior partisanship is strongly correlated with later vote choice, but that relationship is weaker during periods of party change, for younger voters and those who do not see differences between the parties, and in the face of strong short term forces. Despite evidence of the endogeneity of partisanship, we should also not lose sight of its long-term value as a predictor of vote choice.
Agresti, Alan. 1984. Analysis of Ordinal Categorical Data, Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics Applied Probability and Statistics. New York: Wiley.
Aldrich, John H., and Richard G. Niemi. 1995. "The Sixth American Party System: Electoral Change, 1952-1992." In Broken Contract, ed. Stephen C. Craig. Boulder: Westview Press.
Bafumi, Joseph, and Robert Y. Shapiro. 2009. "A New Partisan Voter." Journal of Politics 71: 1-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022381608090014
Bartels, Larry M. 2000. "Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996." American Journal of Political Science 44: 35-50. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669291
Blalock, Hubert M. 1972. Social Statistics. 2d ed, Mcgraw-Hill Series in Sociology. New York,: McGraw-Hill.
Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Carmines, Edward G., and James A. Stimson. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Carmines, Edward G., and James A. Stimson. 1980. "The Two Faces of Issue Voting." American Political Science Review 74: 78-91. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1955648
Ceaser, James W., Andrew Busch, and John J. Pitney. 2009. Epic Journey : The 2008 Elections and American Politics. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
Converse, Philip E. 1976. The Dynamics of Party Support: Cohort Analyzing Party Identification. Beverly Hills: Sage.
Converse, Philip E., and Gregory B. Markus. 1979. "`Plus Ca Change:' the New Cps Election Study Panel." American Political Science Review 73: 2-49. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1954729
Craig, Stephen C. 1985. "The Decline of Partisanship in the United States: A Reexamination of the Neutrality Hypothesis." Political Behavior 7: 57-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00987262
Craig, Stephen C., and Michael D. Martinez. 1989. "Perceived Choice and Institutional Support: Limits to Rational Partisanship." Polity 21: 606-18. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3234751
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Franklin, Charles H., and John E. Jackson. 1983. "The Dynamics of Party Identification." American Political Science Review 77: 957-73. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957569
Green, Donald P., Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler. 2002. Partisan Hearts and Minds : Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters, Yale Isps Series. New Haven, Conn.; London: Yale University Press.
Highton, Benjamin, and Cindy D. Kam. 2011. "The Long-Term Dynamics of Partisanship and Issue Orientations." Journal of Politics 73: 202-15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022381610000964
Jennings, M. Kent, and Gregory B. Markus. 1984. "Partisan Orientations over the Long Haul." American Political Science Review 79: 1000-18. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1955804
Jennings, M. Kent, and Richard G. Niemi. 1981. Generations and Politics: A Panel Study of Young Adults and Their Parents. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400854264
Jennings, M. Kent, and Laura Stoker. 2009. "Voting across Time and Generations." Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Toronto.
Johnston, Richard. 2006. "Party Identification: Unmoved Mover or Sum of Preferences?". Annual Review of Political Science 9: 329-51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.062404.170523
Keith, Bruce E., David B. Magleby, Candice J. Nelson, Elizabeth Orr, Mark C. Westlye, and Raymond E. Wolfinger. 1986. "The Partisan Affinities of Independent Leaners." British Journal of Political Science 16: 155-85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400003872
Langton, Kenneth P., and M. Kent Jennings. 1969. "Mothers Versus Fathers in the Formation of Political Orientations." In Political Socialization, ed. Kenneth P. Langton. New York: Oxford University Press. 52-83.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., William G. Jacoby, Helmut Norpoth, and Herbert F. Weisberg. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.3998/mpub.92266
MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, and James A. Stimson. 1989. "Macropartisanship." American Political Science Review 83: 1125-42. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1961661
Markus, Gregory B., and Philip E. Converse. 1979. "A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice." American Political Science Review 73: 1055-70. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1953989
Martinez, Michael D., and Michael M. Gant. 1990. "Partisan Issue Preferences and Partisan Change." Political Behavior 12: 233-54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00992335
Miller, Arthur H., Warren E. Miller, Alden S. Raine, and Thad A. Brown. 1976. "A Majority Party in Disarray: Policy Polarization in the 1972 Election." American Political Science Review 70: 753-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1959866
Miller, Gary, and Norman Schofield. 2003. "Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States." American Political Science Review 97: 245-60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000650
Miller, Warren E., and Teresa E. Levitan. 1976. Leadership and Change: The New Politics and the American Electorate. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Winthrop Publishers.
Miller, Warren E., and J. Merrill Shanks. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Niemi, Richard G., and M. Kent Jennings. 1991. "Issues and Inheritance in the Formation of Party Identification." American Journal of Political Science 35: 970-88. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111502
Page, Benjamin I., and Calvin C. Jones. 1979. "Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties, and Vote." American Political Science Review 73: 1071-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1953990
Stokes, Donald E. 1966. "Some Dynamic Elements of Contests for the Presidency." American Political Science Review 60: 19-28. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1953803
Stonecash, Jeffrey M. 2006. Political Parties Matter : Realignment and the Return of Partisan Voting. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Weinschenk, Aaron C. 2013. "Polls and Elections: Partisanship and Voting Behavior: An Update." Presidential Studies Quarterly 43: 607-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/psq.12048
White, Theodore H. 1961. The Making of the President, 1960. New York: Atheneum Publishers.
Copyright (c) 2016 Michael D Martinez
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with American Review of Politics agree to the following terms:
The Author retains copyright in the Work, where the term “Work” shall include all digital objects that may result in subsequent electronic publication or distribution.
Upon acceptance of the Work, the author shall grant to the Publisher the right of first publication of the Work.
The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License or its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:
Attribution: other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;
Non-Commercial: the materials may not be used for commercial purposes;
Share Alike: If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
with the understanding that the above condition can be waived with permission from the Author and that where the Work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license.
The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a pre-publication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (see The Effect of Open Access). Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.
Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.
The Author represents and warrants that:
the Work is the Author’s original work;
the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;
the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;
the Work has not previously been published;
the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and
the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.
The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 6 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.