Expanding the Measure of Congruency: Presidential Anticipation of Public Preferences, 1953-2001
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2009.30.0.51-70Abstract
Several important studies have examined congruency between presidential policy position taking and public opinion. Much of this policy-public opinion scholarship, however, explores reflexive responsive pathways between representative and represented, where presidents read public opinion and respond to the opinions of the known public. A less explored aspect of presidential responsiveness to public opinion is the idea of presidential anticipation of future public opinion similar to Key’s (1964) concept of latent opinion. In this article, we offer a simple measure of anticipatory public opinion. Confirming what Key speculated about latent opinion, we find that presidents are more likely to successfully anticipate public preferences when the issue is salient and when elections are approaching, whereas popularity matters very little. Based upon these findings, presidents tend to look outward at the future political environment they face rather than inward (at current popularity) in anticipating reactions to new policy agendas.References
Arnold, R. Douglas. 1990. The Logic of Congressional Action. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Arnold, R. Douglas. 1993. Can Inattentive Citizens Control Their Elected Representatives? In Congress Reconsidered, 5th ed., eds. Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Bailey, Michael, Lee Sigelman, and Clyde Wilcox. 2003. Presidential Persuasion on Social Issues: A Two-Way Street? Political Research Quarterly 56(1):49-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3219883 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/106591290305600105
Blumenthal, Sidney. 1980. The Permanent Campaign: Inside the World of Elite Political Operatives. Boston: Beacon Press.
Brace, Paul, and Barbara Hinckley. 1992. Follow the Leader: Public Opinion Polls and the Modern Presidents. New York: Harper Collins Publishers.
Burns, James MacGregor. 1978. Leadership. New York: Perennial Books.
Burstein, Paul. 1998. Bringing the Public Back In: Should Sociologists Consider the Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy? Social Forces 77:27-62. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3006009 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sf/77.1.27
Burstein, Paul. 2003. The Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy: A Review and an Agenda. Political Research Quarterly 56(1):29-40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/106591290305600103 http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3219881
Canes-Wrone, Brandice. 2001. The President's Legislative Influence from Public Appeals. American Journal of Political Science 45(2):313-329. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669343
Canes-Wrone, Brandice. 2004. The Public Presidency, Personal Approval Ratings, and Policy Making. Presidential Studies Quarterly 34(3):477-492. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2004.00208.x
Canes-Wrone, Brandice. 2006. Who Leads Whom? Presidents, Policy, and the Public. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, Michael C. Herron, and Kenneth W. Shotts. 2001. Leadership and Pandering: A Theory of Executive Policymaking. American Journal of Political Science 45:532-550. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669237
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and Kenneth W. Shotts. 2004. The Conditional Nature of Presidential Responsiveness to Public Opinion. American Journal of Political Science 48(4):690-706. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00096.x
Cohen, Jeffery E. 1995. Presidential Rhetoric and the Public Agenda. American Journal of Political Science 39(1):87-107. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111759
Cohen, Jeffery E. 1999. Presidential Responsiveness and Public Policy-Making: The Public and the Policies that Presidents Choose. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Cohen, Jeffery E., and John A. Hamman. 2003. Presidential Ideology and the Public Mood. In In the Public Domain: Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leader-ship, eds. Lori Cox Han and Diane J. Heith. Albany: State University of New York Press.
Conley, Patricia Heidotting. 2001. Presidential Mandates: How Elections Shape the National Agenda. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Doherty, Brendan J. 2007. Elections: The Politics of Permanent Campaign: Presidential Travel and the Electoral College, 1977-2004. Presidential Studies Quarterly 37(4): 749-773. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2007.02623.x
Edwards, III, George C., William Mitchell, and Reed Welch. 1995. Explaining Presidential Approval: The Significance of Issue Salience. American Journal of Political Science 39:108-134. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111760
Edwards III, George C., and B. Dan Wood. 1999. Who Influences Whom? The President, Congress and the Media. American Political Science Review 93(2):327-344. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2585399
Eisinger, Robert M. 2002. The Evolution of Presidential Polling. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Elling, Richard C. 1982. Ideological Change in the United States Senate: Time and Electoral Responsiveness. Legislative Studies Quarterly 7:75-92. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/439692
Erikson, Robert S., Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson. 2002. The Macro Polity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Fording, Richard C. 1997. The Conditional Effect of Violence as a Political Tactic: Mass Insurgency, Welfare Generosity, and Electoral Context in the American States. American Journal of Political Science 41(1):1-29. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111707
Geer, John G. 1996. From Tea Leaves to Opinion Polls: A Theory of Democratic Leader-ship. New York: Columbia University Press.
Heckman, James J. 1979. Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error. Econometrica 41(1):153-61. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912352
Heith, Diane J. 2004. Polling to Govern. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1999. Lyndon Johnson, Vietnam, and Public Opinion: Rethinking Realists. Theory of Leadership. Presidential Studies Quarterly 29:592-616. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0268-2141.2003.00051.x
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 2000. Politicians Don't Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 2002. Politics and Policymaking in the Real World: Crafted Talk and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness. In Navigating Public Opinion: Polls, Policy and the Future of American Democracy, eds. Jeff Manza, Fay Lomax Cook, and Benjamin I. Page. New York: Oxford University Press.
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1995. The Rise of Presidential Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective. Public Opinion Quarterly 59:163-195. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/269468
Kelley, Jr., Stanley. 1983. Interpreting Elections. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Kennedy, Peter. 1998. A Guide to Econometrics, 4th ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Kernell, Samuel. 1978. Explaining Presidential Popularity. American Political Science Review 72:506-522. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1954107
Kernell, Samuel. 1997. Going Public: New Strategies of Presidential Leadership. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Key, V.O., Jr. 1964. Public Opinion and American Democracy. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Kuklinski, James H. 1978. Representativeness and Elections: A Policy Analysis. American Political Science Review 72(1):165-77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1953606
Light, Paul C. 1999. The President's Agenda: Domestic Policy Choice from Kennedy to Clinton. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Press.
Mansbridge, Jane. 2003. Rethinking Representation. American Political Science Review 97(4):515-528. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000856
Manza, Jeff, and Fay Lomax Cook. 2002. A Democratic Polity? Three Views of Policy Responsiveness to Public Opinion in the United States. American Politics Research 30(6):630-677. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/153267302237231
Mayhew, David R. 1991. Divided Party Control: Does it Make a Difference? PS: Political Science and Politics 24:637-640. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/419392 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1049096500051799
Monroe, Alan D. 1998. Public Opinion and Public Policy, 1980-1993. Public Opinion Quarterly 62:6-28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/297828
Neustadt, Richard E. 1990. Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents. New York: Free Press.
Page, Benjamin I. 1978. Choices and Echoes in Presidential Elections: Rational Man and Electoral Democracy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Page, Benjamin I. 2002. The Semi-Sovereign Public. In Navigating Public Opinion: Polls Policy and the Future of American Democracy, eds. Jeff Manza, Fay Lomax Cook, and Benjamin I. Page. New York: Oxford University Press.
Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1983. Effects of Public Opinion on Policy. American Political Science Review 77(1):175-90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1956018
Rottinghaus, Brandon. 2006. Rethinking Presidential Responsiveness: The Public Presidency and Rhetorical Congruency, 1953-2001. Journal of Politics 68(3):720-732. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00457.x
Sigelman, Lee, and Alan Rosenblatt. 1996. Mythological Considerations in the Analysis of Presidential Persuasion. In Political Persuasion and Attitude Change, eds. Diana C. Mutz, Paul M. Sniderman, and Richard A. Brody. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Stimpson, James A., Michael B. MacKuen, and Robert S. Erikson. 1995. Dynamic Representation. American Political Science Review 89(3):543-564. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2082973
Tenpas, Katherine Dunn. 2003. Presidents as Candidates: Inside the White House for the Presidential Campaign. New York: Routledge.
Thomas, Martin. 1985. Election Proximity and Senatorial Roll Call Voting. American Journal of Political Science 29(1):96-111. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111213
Wilson, Woodrow. 1952. Leaders of Men, ed. T.H. Vail Motter. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Wlezien, Christopher. 1995. The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending. American Journal of Political Science 39(4):981-1000. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111666
Wlezien, Christopher. 1996. Dynamics of Representation: The Case of U.S. Spending on Defense. British Journal of Political Science 26(1):567-588. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400007420
Zaller, John R. 2003. Coming to Grips with V.O. Key's Concept of Latent Opinion. In Electoral Democracy, eds. George Rabinowitz and Michael C. MacKuen. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with American Review of Politics agree to the following terms:
The Author retains copyright in the Work, where the term “Work” shall include all digital objects that may result in subsequent electronic publication or distribution.
Upon acceptance of the Work, the author shall grant to the Publisher the right of first publication of the Work.
The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License or its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:
Attribution: other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;
Non-Commercial: the materials may not be used for commercial purposes;
Share Alike: If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
with the understanding that the above condition can be waived with permission from the Author and that where the Work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license.
The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a pre-publication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (see The Effect of Open Access). Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.
Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.
The Author represents and warrants that:
the Work is the Author’s original work;
the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;
the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;
the Work has not previously been published;
the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and
the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.
The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 6 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.
