The Causes and Consequences of “Running Scared”
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2007.28.0.119-138Abstract
Despite attention given to the advantage of incumbency and the tireless pursuit of a personal vote by members of Congress, little attention has been directed at the consequences of the ‘running scared’ phenomenon. Specifically, the relationship between congressional behavior and changes in the electorate is as yet unspecified. Did the erosion of partisanship in the electorate facilitate the emergence of a new style of representative? Or did the activities of members of Congress beginning in the years immediately following World War II contribute to a partisan dealignment? Drawing on the work of Fiorina and using some available but heretofore neglected data, we demonstrate that changes in congressional behavior were spurred by an increased sensitivity to electoral fortunes and began prior to the electoral dealignment of the 1960s. Further, we show that the changing behavior of House members was working to weaken partisan ties among the electorate.References
Alford, John, and David Brady. 1993. "Personal Partisan Advantage in U.S. Congressional Elections, 1846-1990." In Congress Reconsidered, 5th ed., eds. Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.
America Votes. 1960. Washington, DC: Governmental Affairs Institute, Congressional Quarterly.
Ansolabehere, Stephen, James M. Snyder, Jr., and Charles Stewart III. 2000. Old Voters, New Voters, and the Personal Vote: Using Redistricting to Measure the Incumbency Advantage. American Journal of Political Science 44:17-34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669290
Bartels, Larry M. 2000. "Partisanship and Voting Behavior." American Journal of Political Science 44:35-50. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669291
Born, Richard. 1979. Generational Replacement and the Growth of Incumbent Reelection Margins in the U.S. House. American Political Science Review 73:811-817. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1955406
Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Cain, Bruce, John Ferejohn, and Morris Fiorina. 1987. The Personal Vote: Constituency Service and Electoral Independence. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674493285
Congressional Quarterly's Guide to Voting Scores. 1997. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.
Converse, Philip E. 1976. The Dynamics of Party Support. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
Cover, Albert D. 1977. One Good Term Deserves Another: The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections. American Journal of Political Science 21:523-541. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2110580
Cover, Albert D. 1980. Contacting Congressional Constituents: Some Patterns of Perquisite Use. American Journal of Political Science 24:125-135. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2110928
Davidson, Roger H., and Walter J. Olseszek. 1994. Congress and its Members. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
Dye, Thomas R. 1986. Politics in States and Communities. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Erikson, Robert. 1972. Malapportionment, Gerrymandering, and Party Fortunes in Congressional Elections. American Political Science Review 66:1234-1255. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957176
Ferejohn, John A. 1977. On the Decline of Competition in Congressional Elections. American Political Science Review 71: 166-76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055400259364 http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1956960
Fenno, Richard. 1978. Home Style: House Members in their Districts. Boston: Little, Brown and Company.
Fiorina, Morris P. 1977a. Congress: The Keystone of the Washington Establishment. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Fiorina, Morris. 1977b. The Case of the Vanishing Marginals: The Bureaucracy Did It. American Political Science Review 71:177-181. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1956961 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055400259376
Garand, James C., and Donald A. Gross. 1984. "Changes in the Vote Margins for Congressional Candidates: A Specification of Historical Trends." American Political Science Review 78:17-30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1961246
Herrera, Richard, and Michael Yawn. 1999. The Emergence of the Personal Vote. The Journal of Politics 61:136-150. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2647778
Hibbing, John R. 1991. Contours of the Modern Congressional Career. American Political Science Review 85:405-428. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1963167
Jacobson, Gary C. 1987a. The Marginals Never Vanished: Incumbency and Competition in Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, 1952-82. American Journal of Political Science 31:126-141. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111327
Jacobson, Gary C. 1987b. Running Scared: Elections and Congressional Politics in the 1980s. In Congress: Structure and Policy, eds. Mathew D. McCubbins and Terry Sullivan. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Jacobson, Gary C. 1997. The Politics of Congressional Elections, 4th ed. New York: Harper Collins Publishers.
Jewell, Malcolm, and Samuel C. Patterson. 1986. The Legislative Process in the United States, 4th ed. New York: Random House.
King, Anthony. 1997. Running Scared: Why American's Politicians Campaign Too Much and Govern Too Little. New York: The Free Press.
Krehbiel, Keith, and John R. Wright. 1983. The Incumbency Effect in Congressional Elections: A Test of Two Explanations. American Journal of Political Science 27:140-157. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111057
Mann, Thomas E. 1978. Unsafe at any Margin. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute.
Matthews, Donald R. 1960. U.S. Senators and Their World. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.
Mayhew, David. 1974a. Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Mayhew, David. 1974b. Congressional Elections: The Case of the Vanishing Marginals. Polity 6:295-317. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3233931
Miller, Warren E., and Donald E. Stokes. 1963. Constituency Influence in Congress. American Political Science Review 75:45-56. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1952717
Parker, Glenn R. 1986. Homeward Bound: Explaining Changes in Congressional Behavior. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
Polsby, Nelson. 1968. The Institutionalization of the U.S. House of Representatives. American Political Science Review 62:144-168. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055400115692 http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1953331
Price, H. Douglas. 1975. Congress and the Evolution of Legislative Professionalism. In Congress in Change, ed. Norman J. Ornstein. New York: Praeger.
Sullivan, John L., and Eric M. Uslaner. 1978. Congressional Behavior and Electoral Marginality. American Journal of Political Science 22:536-553. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2110460
United States Congressional District Data Books, 1961-1965. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Weisberg, Robert. 1981. Have House Elections Become a Meaningless Ritual? In Public Opinion and Public Policy, 3rd ed., ed. Norman Luttbeg. Itasca, IL: F.E. Peacock.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with American Review of Politics agree to the following terms:
The Author retains copyright in the Work, where the term “Work” shall include all digital objects that may result in subsequent electronic publication or distribution.
Upon acceptance of the Work, the author shall grant to the Publisher the right of first publication of the Work.
The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License or its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:
Attribution: other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;
Non-Commercial: the materials may not be used for commercial purposes;
Share Alike: If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
with the understanding that the above condition can be waived with permission from the Author and that where the Work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license.
The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a pre-publication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (see The Effect of Open Access). Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.
Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.
The Author represents and warrants that:
the Work is the Author’s original work;
the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;
the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;
the Work has not previously been published;
the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and
the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.
The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 6 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.