Fired? Or Firing Up? How Term Limits Affect Career Politicians

Authors

  • Eric Heberlig
  • Suzanne Leland

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2007.28.0.57-77

Abstract

Customarily professional legislators are thought to behave more strategically than other legislators in their quest for higher office (Canon 1990; Jacobson and Kernell 1983). The implementation of term limits upsets all the traditional career parameters by restructuring the incentives to remain in political office. For this reason, we posit the following questions: how much difference does a legislature’s level of professionalism make in how members respond to term limits? How do term limits affect legislators’ responsiveness to available opportunities and willingness to take risks to continue their careers? We use a comparative case study approach and pooled cross-sectional data to analyze individual career decisions of legislators in seven states with varying levels of professionalism and term limit laws from 1992-2002. Using multinomial logit, we find that decisions to seek other offices in response to term limits are highly contingent on a state’s level of professionalization.

References

Barone, Michael, William Lilley, and Laurence De Franco. 1998. State Legislative Elections: Voting Patterns and Demographics. Washington, DC: CQ Press.

Berkman, Michael B. 1994. State Legislators in Congress: Strategic Politicians, Professional Legislatures, and the Party Nexus. American Journal of Political Science 38:1025-1055. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111731

Berkman, Michael B., and James Eisenstein. 1999. State Legislators as Congressional Candidates: The Effects of Prior Experience on Legislative Recruitment and Fundraising. Political Research Quarterly 52:481-498. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/106591299905200302 http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/449146

Beyle, Thad, and Richard Jones. 1994. Term Limits in the States. The Book of States 1994-1995. Washington, DC: The Council of State Governments.

Cain, Bruce E. 1996. The Varying Impact of Legislative Term Limits. In Legislative Term Limits: Public Choice Perspectives, ed. Bernard Grofman. Boston: Kluwer. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1812-2_2

Canon, David T. 1990. Actors, Athletes, and Astronauts: Political Amateurs in the United States Congress. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Carey, John M. 1996. Term Limits and Representation. New York: Cambridge University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511625619

Carey, John M., Richard Niemi, and Lynda Powell. 2000. Term Limits in the State Legislatures. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.3998/mpub.10855

Council of State Governments. 1992-2002. The Book of States. Lexington, KY: Council of State Governments.

Council of State Governments. 1995-2002. CSG State Directory I & II. Lexington, KY: Council of State Governments.

Cox, Gary, and Scott Morgenstern. 1995. The Incumbency Advantage in Multimember Districts: Evidence from the States. Legislative Studies Quarterly 20:329-349. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/440224

Farmer, Rick, John D. Rausch Jr., and John C. Green. 2003. Introduction: Clues from Term Limits at Two. In The Test of Time: Coping with Legislative Term Limits. Lexington Books.

Francis, Wayne, and Lawrence Kenney. 1997. Equilibrium Projections of the Consequences of Term Limits upon Expected Tenure, Institutional Turnout, and Membership Experience. Journal of Politics 59:240-252. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2998225

Gaddie, Ronald Keith. 2004. Born to Run: Origins of the Political Career. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

Groseclose, Timothy and Keith Krehbiel. 1994. Golden Parachutes, Rubber Checks and Strategic Retirements from the 102nd House. American Journal of Political Science 38:75-99. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111336

Hall, Richard L., and Robert P. Van Houweling. 1995. Avarice and Ambition in Congress: Representatives' Decisions to Run or Retire from the U.S. House. American Political Science Review 89:121-136. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2083079

Hamm, Keith E., and Gary F. Moncrief. 2004. Legislative Politics in the States. In Politics in the American States: A Comparative Analysis. 8th ed., eds. Virginia Gray and Russel Hanson. Washington, DC: CQ Press.

Hibbing, John R. 1999. Legislative Careers: Why and How We Should Study Them. Legislative Studies Quarterly 14:149-171. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/440308

Jacobson, Gary C., and Samuel Kernell. 1983. Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections, 2nd ed. New Haven, CT: Yale University.

Kiewiet, D. Roderick, and Langche Zeng. 1993. An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions, 1947-1986. American Political Science Review 87:928-941. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2938824

King, Gary, James Honaker, Anne Joseph, and Kenneth Scheve. 2001. Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: An Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation. American Political Science Review 95:49-70.

King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Jacobson, Gary A., and Samuel Kernell. 1983. Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections, 2nd ed. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Jewell, Malcolm E., and David Breaux. 1988. The Effect of Incumbency on State Legislative Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly 13:495-514. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/439781

Jewell, Malcolm E., and Marcia Lynn Whicker. 1994. Legislative Leadership in the American States. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Maddox, Jerome. 2004. Term Limits and Career Choice in U.S. State Legislatures. Paper presented at the Life with Term Limits Conference. Akron, OH: The Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics.

Maestas, Cherie, Sarah Fulton, Sandy Maisel, and Walter Stone. 2006. When to Risk It? Institutions, Ambitions, and the Decision to Run for the U.S. House. American Political Science Review. 100:195-208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055406062101

Maisel, Sandy L., and Walter J. Stone. 1997. Determinants of Candidate Emergence in U.S. House Elections: An Exploratory Study. Legislative Studies Quarterly 22:79-96. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/440292

Meinke, Scott R., and Edward B. Hasecke. 2003. Term Limits, Professionalization, and Partisan Control. Journal of Politics 65:898-908.

Moncrief, Gary F. 1999. Recruitment and Retention in U.S. Legislatures. Legislative Studies Quarterly 14:173-208. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/440309

Moncrief, Gary F., Richard G. Niemi, and Lynda W. Powell. 2004. Time, Term Limits, and Turnover: Trends in Membership Stability in U.S. State Legislatures. Legislative Studies Quarterly 29:357-381. http://dx.doi.org/10.3162/036298004X201212

Moncrief, Gary F., and Joel A. Thompson. 1992. Changing Patterns in State Legislative Careers. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.

Morehouse, Sarah and Malcom Jewell. 2004. States as Laboratories: A Reprise. Annual Review of Political Science 7:177-203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.7.012003.104913

National Conference of State Legislators. 2006. The Term Limited States. http:// www.ncsl.org/programs/legman/about/states.htm.

National Conference of State Legislators. 2006. Full and Part-time Legislatures. http:// www.ncsl.org/programs/press/2004/backgrounder_fullandpart.htm.

Opheim, Cynthia. 1994. The Effect of U.S. State Legislative Term Limits Revisited. Legislative Studies Quarterly 19(1):49-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/439799

Patterson, Samuel C. 1993. Ohio Legislative Research Project. The Ohio State University.

Powell, Richard. 2000. The Impact of Term Limits on Candidacy Decisions of State Legislators in U.S. House Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly 25(4):645-661. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/440438

Rosenthal, Alan. 1998. The Decline of Representative Democracy. Washington, DC: CQ.

Schlesinger, Joseph A. 1966. Ambition and Politics: Political Careers in the United States. Chicago: Rand McNally.

Squire, Perevill. 1988. Career Opportunities and Membership Stability in Legislatures. Legislative Studies Quarterly 13(1):65-82. Squire, Perevill. 1992. The Theory of Legislative Institutionalization and the California Assembly. Journal of Politics 54:1026-1054. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/439945

State Yellow Book. 1992-2002. State Yellow Book. Monroe Leadership Directories.

Theriault, Sean. 1998. Moving Up or Moving Out: Career Ceilings and Congressional Retirement. Legislative Studies Quarterly 22:419-433. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/440361

Tomz, Michael, Jason Wittenberg, and Gary King. 2003. CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results, 2.1. Available at: http:// gking.harvard.edu.

Downloads

Published

2007-04-01

Issue

Section

Articles