Declining Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective: A Result of Converging Party Profiles?

Authors

  • Miki Caul Kittilson

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2002.23.0.355-377

Abstract

Voter participation has declined in 16 of 18 established industrial democracies between 1950 and 1998, while national electoral institutions have remained fairly constant. At the same time, analysis of Left-Right party profiles over the same period reveals that the majority of industrial democracies have witnessed a drift toward centrist party profiles. Do increasingly similar party profiles lower voters’ sense of stake in elections, thereby contributing to declining turnout? Multi-variate analysis of a pooled cross-section of elections from 1950 and 1998 suggests that converging party profiles have little impact, while unionization levels remain the strongest indicators of relative change in turnout levels.

References

Almond, Gabriel, and Sidney Verba. 1963. The Civic Culture. Boston, MA: Little, Brown. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400874569

Bain, George, and Robert Price. 1980. Profiles of Union Growth. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

Banks, Arthur. 1997. Cross-National Time Series Data Archive [electronic data file]. Binghamton, NY: Computer Solutions Unlimited.

Bartels, Larry, and Henry Brady. 1993. The State of Quantitative Political Methodology. Pp. 121-162 in The State of the Discipline II, ed. Ada W. Finifter. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association.

Beck, Nathaniel, and Jonathan Katz. 1995. What To Do (and Not to Do) with TimeSeries Cross-Section Data in Comparative Politics. American Political Science Review 89:634-647. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2082979

Budge, Ian. 1999. Party Policy and Ideology: Reverting to the1950s? In Critical Elections: British Parties and Voters in Long-Term Perspective, eds. Geoffrey Evans and Pippa Norris. London: SAGE Publications. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781446218518.n1

Budge, Ian, David Robertson, and Derek Hearl, eds. 1987. Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analysis of Postwar Election Programs in 19 Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Budge, Ian, Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Andrea Volkens, Judith Bara, and Eric Tannenbaum. 2001. Mapping Policy Preferences. Estimates for Parties, Electors and Governments, 1945-1998. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Burnham, Walter Dean. 1987. The Turnout Problem. Pp. 97-133 in Elections American Style, ed. James A. Reichley. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.

Burnham, Walter Dean. 1965. The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe. American Political Science Review 59(1):7-28. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1976117

Caul, Miki, and Mark Gray. 2002. From Platform Declarations to Policy Outcomes: Changing Party Profiles and Partisan Influence Over Policy. In Parties Without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies, eds. Russell J. Dalton and Martin P. Wattenberg. New York: Oxford University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/0199253099.003.0010

Crewe, Ivor, and David Denver, eds. 1985. Electoral Change in Western Democracies. London: Croom Helm.

Dalton, Russell J., Scott Flanagan, and Paul Beck, eds. 1984. Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Dalton, Russell J., and Martin P. Wattenberg. 2000. Parties without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. New York: Oxford University Press.

Dittrich, Karl, and Lars Norby Johansen. 1983. Voting Turnout in Europe, 1945-78: Myths and Realities. Pp. 05-114 in Western European Party Systems, eds. Hans Daadler and Peter Mair eds. London: SAGE.

Electoral Studies. 1990-1997. National Elections. In Electoral Studies. Guildford, England: Butterworths.

European Journal of Political Research. 1993-1997. Election Results in European Journal of Political Research. Dordecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Franklin, Mark N. 2002. The Dynamics of Electoral Participation. In Comparing Democracies 2: New Challenges in the Study of Elections and Voting, eds. Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi, and Pippa Norris. London: SAGE.

Ghobarah, Hazem. 1998. The Decline in Voter Turnout Across the Advanced (Post) Industrial Democracies, 1980-1998. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association Meeting, Boston.

Golden, Miriam, Peter Lange, and Michael Wallerstein. 1997. Union Centralization among Advanced Industrial Societies: An Empirical Study. Dataset available at http://shelly.sscnet.ucla.edu/data.

Gray, Mark. 1998. Institutional Explanations of Voter Turnout in Mature Industrial Democracies: If You Build It They May Not Come. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Western Political Science Association, Los Angeles.

Gray, Mark. 2003. In the Midst of Fellows: The Context of the American Turnout Decision. Diss., University of California Irvine.

Gary, Mark, and Miki Caul. 2000. Declining Voter Turnout in Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1950 to 1997: The Effects of Declining Group Mobilization. Com-parative Political Studies 33(9):1091-1122. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414000033009001

Griffin , L. H. McCammon, and C. Botsko. 1990. The Unmaking of a Movement? The Crisis of U.S. Trade Unions in Comparative Perspective. Pp. 169-194 in Changes in Societal Institutions, eds. M. Hallinan, D. Klein, and J. Glass. New York: Plenum.

Harmel, Robert, and Alexander Tan. 1995. Substance vs. Packaging. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.

Hofferbert, Richard. 1997. The Patterns of Party Concerns in Modern Democracies. Paper presented at the Workshop on Change in the Relationship Between Parties and Democracy, Texas A&M University, 4-6 April.

IDEA Database. 1997. Voter Turnout from 1945 to 1997: A Global Report on Political Participation. Stockholm, Sweden: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

Inglehart, Ronald. 1990. Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Jackman, Robert. 1987. Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies. American Political Science Review 81:405-423. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1961959

Jackman, Robert, and Ross Miller. 1995. Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies During the 1980s. Comparative Political Studies 27:467-492. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414095027004001

Johnston, Jack, and John DiNardo. 1997. Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Kirchheimer, Otto. 1966. The Transformation of the Western European Party Systems. In Political Parties and Political Development, eds. Joseph LaPalombara and Myron Weiner, eds. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400875337-007

Klein, Judy. 1997. Statistical Visions in Time. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Klingemann, Hans-Dieter, and Dieter Fuchs. 1995. Citizens and the State. New York: Oxford University Press.

Knutsen, Oddbjorn. 1998. Expert Judgments of the Left-Right Location of Political Parties: A Comparative Longitudinal Study. West European Politics 21:63-94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402389808425245

Lane, Jan-Erik, David McKay and Kenneth Newton. 1997. Political Data Handbook OECD Countries. New York: Oxford University Press.

Lewis-Beck, Michael. 1980. Applied Regression. London: SAGE. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781412983440

Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Brad Lockerbie. 1989. Economics, Votes and Protests: Western European Cases. Comparative Political Studies 22:155-77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414089022002002

Lijphart, Arend. 1994. Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945-1990. New York: Oxford University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198273479.001.0001

Lijphart, Arend. 1997. Unequal Participation: Democraciesí Unresolved Dilemma. American Political Science Review 91:1-14. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2952255

Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1960. Political Man: The Social Basis of Politics. New York: Doubleday.

Lipset, Seymour Martin, and Stein Rokkan, eds. 1967. Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: The Free Press.

Mackie, Thomas, and Richard Rose. 1991. The International Almanac of Electoral History. Washington, DC: CQ Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-09851-4

Mair, Peter. 1995. Political Parties, Popular Legitimacy, and Public Privilege. West European Politics 18:40-57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402389508425090

OECD. 1982-1997. OECD Economic Outlook: Historical Statistics. Paris: Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

Pacek, Alexander, and Benjamin Radcliff. 1995. Turnout and the Vote for Left-of-Centre Parties: A Cross-National Analysis. British Journal of Political Science 25:137-143. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400007109

Pesonen, Pertti. 1 999. Politics in Finland. In Comparative Governance, ed. W. Philipps Shively. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Powell, G. Bingham. 1986. American Turnout in Comparative Perspective. American Political Science Review 80:17-43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957082

Powell, G. Bingham. 1980. Voting Turnout in Thirty Democracies: Partisan, Legal, and Socio-Economic Influences. In Electoral Participation: A Comparative Analysis, ed. Richard Rose. Beverly Hills, CA: SAGE.

Radcliff, Benjamin. 1992. The Welfare State Turnout, and the Economy: A Comparative Analysis. American Political Science Review 86:444-454. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1964232

Radcliff, Benjamin. 1996. Turnout and the Economy. Comparative Political Studies 29:718-723. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414096029006005

Radcliff, Benjamin, and Patricia Davis. 2000. Labor Organization and Electoral Participation in Industrial Democracies. American Journal of Political Science 44:132-141. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669299

Rosenstone, Steven, and Mark Hansen. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillian.

Rubin, Alissa. 1998. This Time, Unions Mobilized the Troops. The Los Angeles Times, November, p. A5.

Stimson, James A. 1985. Regression in Space and Time. American Journal of Political Science 29:914-947. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111187

Taagepera, Rein, and Matthew Shugart. 1989. Seats and Votes. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Taylor, Andrew J. 1993. Trade Unions and the Politics of Social Democratic Renewal. West European Politics 16:133-156. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402389308424951

Teixeira, Ruy. 1992. The Disappearing American Voter. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.

Thomas, John Clayton. 1975. The Decline of Ideology in Western Political Parties. Beverly Hills, CA: SAGE.

Thomas, John Clayton. 1979. The Changing Nature of Partisan Divisions in the West: Trends in Domestic Policy Orientations in Ten Party Systems. European Journal of Political Research 7:397-413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1979.tb00915.x

Topf, Richard. 1995. Electoral Participation. Pp. 28-51 in Citizens and the State, eds. Hans-Dieter Klingemann and Dieter Fuchs. New York: Oxford University Press.

Uhlaner, Carole. 1989. Rational Turnout: The Neglected Role of Groups. American Journal of Political Science 33:390-422. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111153

United Nations. 1950-1993. United Nations Demographic Yearbooks. New York: United Nations.

Verba, Sidney, and Norman Nie. 1972. Participation in America. New York: Harper & Row.

Verba, Sidney, Norman Nie, and Jae-on Kim. 1978. Participation and Political Equality. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Verba, Sidney, Kay Schlozman, and Henry Brady. 1995. Voice and Equality. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Visser, Jelle. 1992. Trade Union Membership Database. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Unpublished dataset.

Vowles, Jack, et al. 1995. Towards Consensus. Auckland, New Zealand: Auckland University Press.

Wagschal, Uwe. 1998. Parties, Party Systems, and Policy Effects. In Comparing Party System Change, Paul Pennings and Jan-Erik Lane. London: Routledge.

Wallerstein, Michael. 1989. Union Organization in Advanced Industrial Democracies. American Political Science Review 83:481-501. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1962401

Downloads

Published

2003-01-01

Issue

Vol. 23: Winter 2002

Section

Articles

License

Authors who publish with American Review of Politics agree to the following terms:

  1. The Author retains copyright in the Work, where the term “Work” shall include all digital objects that may result in subsequent electronic publication or distribution.

  2. Upon acceptance of the Work, the author shall grant to the Publisher the right of first publication of the Work.

  3. The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License or its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:

    1. Attribution: other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;

    2. Non-Commercial: the materials may not be used for commercial purposes;

    3. Share Alike: If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.

with the understanding that the above condition can be waived with permission from the Author and that where the Work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license.

  1. The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.

  2. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a pre-publication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (see The Effect of Open Access). Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.

  3. Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.

  1. The Author represents and warrants that:

    1. the Work is the Author’s original work;

    2. the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;

    3. the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;

    4. the Work has not previously been published;

    5. the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and

    6. the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.

  2. The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 6 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.