The Determinants and Consequences of District Partisan Change and Intactness in the Congressional Redistricting Process: An Integrative Model

Richard Born

Abstract


In this study of redistricting from 1992 to 2012, we develop an integrative path analysis model that links together the two parts of the congressional redistricting process: the impact of political and environmental antecedent variables on district partisan change and constituency intactness, and the subsequent impact that partisan chance and intactness have on incumbent reelection margin. Environmental factors, most notably the extent of a district’s overor under-population prior to redistricting, are found to ultimately make more difference on safety than does party control of the redistricting plan. Furthermore, the pathways extending through partisan change are more important for members’ reelection margin than are the pathways extending through intactness. Since members typically end up with a sizable share of new constituents, however, whereas a fairly even balance exists between districts left with pro-incumbent or anti-incumbent partisan change, the average member actually has somewhat more to fear from the former product of the redistricting process.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abramowitz, Alan I. 2010. The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Allison, Paul D. 1990. "Change Scores as Dependent Variables in Regression Analysis." Sociological Methodology 20: 93-114. https://doi.org/10.2307/271083

Ansolabehere, Stephen, James M. Snyder, Jr., and Charles Stewart, III. 2000. "Old Voters,New Voters, and the Personal Vote: Using Redistricting to Measure the Incumbency Advantage." American Journal of Political Science 44 (January): 17-34. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669290

Boatright, Robert G. 2004. "Static Ambition in a Changing World: Legislators' Preparations for, and Responses to, Redistricting." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4 (Winter): 436-54. https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000400400405

Bollen, Kenneth A. 1989. Structural Equations with Latent Variables. New York: John Wiley and Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118619179

Bullock III, Charles S. 2010. Redistricting: The Most Political Activity in America. Lanham, MD.: Rowman and Littlefield.

Canes-Wrone, Brandice, David W. Brady, and John F. Cogan. 2002. "Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members' Voting." American Political Science Review 96 (March): 127-40. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055402004276

Carson, Jamie L., Gregory Koger, Matthew J. Lebo, and Everett Young. 2010. "The Electoral Costs of Party Loyalty in Congress." American Journal of Political Science 54 (July): 598-616. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00449.x

Crespin, Michael H. 2005. "Using Geographic Information Systems to Measure District Change, 2000-2002." Political Analysis 13 (No. 3): 253-60. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpi016

Desposato, Scott W., and John R. Petrocik. 2003. "The Variable Incumbency Advantage: New Voters, Redistricting, and the Personal Vote." American Journal of Political Science 47 (January): 18-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5907.00002

———. 2005. "Redistricting and Incumbency: The New Voter Effect." In Redistricting in the New Millennium, ed. Peter F. Galderisi. Lanham, MD.: Lexington Books.

Forgette, Richard, and Glenn Platt. 2005. "Redistricting Principles and Incumbency Protection in the U.S. Congress." Political Geography 24 (November): 934-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2005.05.002

Friedman, John N., and Richard T. Holden. 2009. "The Rising Incumbent Reelection Rate: What's Gerrymandering Got to Do with It?" Journal of Politics 71 (April): 593-611. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609090483

Hayes, Danny, and Seth C. McKee. 2009. "The Participatory Effects of Redistricting." American Journal of Political Science 53 (October): 1006-23. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00413.x

Hood III, M. V., and Seth C. McKee. 2010. "Stranger Danger: Redistricting, Incumbent Recognition, and Vote Choice." Social Science Quarterly 91 (June): 344-58. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00696.x

———. 2013. "Unwelcome Constituents: Redistricting and Countervailing Partisan Tides." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 13 (June): 203-24.

Hu, Li-tze, and Peter M. Bentler. 1999. "Cutoff Criteria for Fit Indexes in Covariance Structure Analysis: Conventional Criteria versus New Alternatives." Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal 6 (No. 1): 1-55.

Jacobson, Gary C. 1990. "The Effects of Campaign Spending in House Elections: New Evidence for Old Arguments." American Journal of Political Science 34 (May): 334-362. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450

———. 2011. A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People, 2nd ed., New York: Pearson.

Liker, Jeffrey K., Sue Augustyniak, and Greg J. Duncan. 1985. "Panel Data and Models of Change: A Comparison of First Difference and Conventional Two-Wave Models." Social Science Research 14 (March): 80-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/0049-089X(85)90013-4

Loehlin, John C. 2004. Latent Variable Models: An Introduction to Factor, Path, and Structural Equation Analysis. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

McDonald, Michael P. 2004. "A Comparative Analysis of Redistricting Institutions in the United States, 2001-02." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4 (Winter): 371-95. https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000400400402

McKee, Seth C. 2008a. "The Effects of Redistricting on Voting Behavior in Incumbent U.S. House Elections, 1992-1994." Political Research Quarterly 61 (March): 122-33. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907306473

———. 2008b. "Redistricting and Familiarity with U.S. House Candidates." American Politics Research 36 (November): 962-79.

———. 2010. Republican Ascendancy in Southern U.S. House Elections. Boulder, CO: Westview.

———. 2013. "Political Conditions and the Electoral Effects of Redistricting." American Politics Research 41 (July): 623-46.

Rush, Mark E. 2000. Does Redistricting Make a Difference?: Partisan Representation and Electoral Behavior. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.

Yoshinaka, Antoine, and Chad Murphy. 2009. "Partisan Gerrymandering and Population Instability: Completing the Redistricting Puzzle." Political Geography 28 (November): 451-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2009.10.011

———. 2011. "The Paradox of Redistricting: How Partisan Mapmakers Foster Competition but Disrupt Representation." Political Research Quarterly 64 (June):435-47.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2016.35.2.48-72

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2016 Richard Born

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.