Retrospective Voting in Presidential Primaries

Authors

  • Mark J. Wattier

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.1990.11.0.57-80

Abstract

The research question of this study was whether voters who participated in presidential primaries cast retrospective votes. This problem was studied with data from CBS News/New York Times exit polls for three 1976 Republican primaries and for ten 1980 Democratic primaries. The analysis suggested that ballots cast in the presidential primaries of the party-in-power were primarily retrospective votes. Statistical controls were introduced for candidate image, ideology, issues, electability, party identification, and socioeconomic status. These controls did not alter the basic finding of retrospective voting.

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Published

1991-01-01

Issue

Vol. 11: Winter 1990

Section

Articles

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