The Electoral Vulnerability of Congressional Incumbents: Another Perspective

Authors

  • Jan P. Vermeer

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.1984.5.0.86-92

Abstract

The invulnerability of congressional incumbents to electoral defeat has been overstated. Ever since the first studies provided evidence for what congressmen and political observers long knew, that incumbents are difficult to unseat, researchers have repeatedly demonstrated the electoral advantages of congressmen over their opponents (Erikson, 1971; Cover, 1977; Hinckley, 1981). Erikson estimated an incumbent's advantage to be about five percent in the post- 1966 era (Erikson, 1972), and Cover reported values for the "sophomore surge" in the same range from the 1960 through the 1974 congressional elections (Cover, 1977). The electoral edge may be growing: separately, Mayhew and Born argued that incumbents are safer now than in the past (Mayhew, 1974a; Born, 1979).

References

Born, Richard (1979). "Generational Replacement and the Growth of Incumbent Reelection Margins in the U.S. House." American Political Science Review 73: 811-17.

Cover, Albert (1977). "One Good Term Deserves Another: The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections." American Journal of Political Science 21: 523-43.

Erikson, Robert (1971). "The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections." Polity 3: 395-405.

Erikson, Robert (1972). "Malapportionment, Gerrymandering, and Party Fortunes in Congressional Elections." American Political Science Review 66: 1234-55.

Fenno, Richard F . , Jr. (1978). Home Style: House Members in Their Districts. Boston: Little, Brown.

Hinckley, Barbara (1981). Congressional Elections. Washington: Congressional Quarterly Press.

Jacobson, Gary C. and Samuel Kernel! (1981). Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections. New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press.

Mann, Thomas E. (1978). Unsafe at Any Margin. Washington: American Enterprise Institute.

Mayhew, David (1974a). "Congressional Elections: The Case of the Vanishing Marginals." Polity 6: 295-317.

Mayhew, David (1974b). Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press.

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Published

1985-01-01

Issue

Vol. 5: Winter 1984

Section

Articles

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