Stepping Stone to the White House or Tombstone on Presidential Ambition: Why Senators Usually Fail When They Run for the White House
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2006.27.0.45-70Abstract
Studies divide over which offices are the best position from which to seek the presidency. This study looks at how candidates from various backgrounds perform in the competition for resources and votes in presidential nomination campaigns. The study also sheds light on Burden’s (2002)“candidate pool “and “candidate investment” hypotheses. As a group, senators are found to be relatively weak fundraisers, receive less campaign news coverage, and attract less public support than presidential candidates from most other backgrounds. Senators as a group are more variable than other groups of office-holders, but not significantly so. Most but not all senators who enter the race appear to invest themselves in their campaign.References
Abramson, Paul, John Aldrich, and David Rohde. 1987. Progressive Ambition Among U.S. Senators, 1972-1988. American Journal of Political Science 49:3-35.
Adkins, Randall E. 2000. Progressive Ambition and the Presidency: Reexamining the Benefit of Running for Higher Office. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. Chicago, IL.
Adkins, Randall E., and Andrew J. Dowdle. 2000. Break Out the Mint Juleps in New Hampshire? Is New Hampshire the. Primary. Culprit Limiting Presidential Nomi-nation Forecasts? American Politics Quarterly 28:251-269. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673X00028002006
Adkins, Randall E., and Andrew J. Dowdle. 2001. The Money Primary: What Influences the Outcome of Pre-Primary Presidential Nomination Fundraising. Presidential Studies Quarterly 32:256-275. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0360-4918.2002.00220.x
Adkins, Randall E., Andrew J. Dowdle, and Wayne P. Steger. 2006. Progressive Ambition and the Presidency, 1972-2008, Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. Chicago.
Aldrich, John H. 1980. Before the Convention: Strategies and Choices in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Alexander, Herbert, and Monica Bauer. 1991. Financing the 1988 Election. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Arterton, Christopher F. 1984. Media Politics: New Strategies of Presidential Campaigns. Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath.
Barilleaux, Ryan J., and Randall E. Adkins. 1993. The Nomination: Process and Patterns. The Elections of 1992, ed. Michael Nelson. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.
Berke, Richard L. 2002. Democrats Start Early in the Presidential Trail. New York Times. February 18, p. A10.
Brace, Paul. 1984. Progressive Ambition in the House: A Probabilistic Approach. Journal of Politics 46:556-571. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2130975
Brady, Henry E., and Richard Johnston. 1987. What.s the Primary Message: Horse Race or Issue Journalism. Pp. 104-26 in Media and Momentum, eds. Gary R. Orren and Nelson W. Polsby. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.
Brown, Clifford, Lynda Powell, and Clyde Wilcox 1995. Serious Money: Fundraising and Contributing in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511521553
Buchanan, Christopher. 1979. Connally Heads Field in Fund Raising. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. November 10, p. 2529.
Burden, Barry C. 2002. United States Senators as Presidential Candidates. Political Science Quarterly 117:81-102. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/798095
Cook, Rohdes. 1979. GOP Presidential Hopefuls Gave Plenty to Party Candidates in 1978. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. February 17, pp. 307-311.
Corrado, Anthony. 2001. Financing the 2000 Elections. Pp. 92-124 in The Election of 2000, ed. Gerald Pomper. New York: Chatham House.
Davidson, Roger H., and Walter J. Oleszek. 2004. Congress and Its Members, 9th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Doherty, Carroll. 1999. Lott Seeks a Path Through Legislative Minefield. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. June 26, p. 1513.
Ehrenhalt, Alan. 1983. The Molting Season in the U. S. Senate. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. March 12, p. 535.
Freed, Bruce. 1975a. Wallace Far Ahead in Spending for 1976. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. February 22, pp. 403-407.
Freed, Bruce. 1975b. Financing Elections: New Law Under Attack. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. June 14, pp. 1239-1248.
Gurian, Paul Henri. 1986. Resource Allocation Strategies in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. American Journal of Political Science 30:802-821. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2111274
Haynes, Audrey A., Paul-Henri Gurian, and Stephen M. Nichols. 1997. The Role of Candidate Spending in Presidential Nominations. Journal of Politics 59:213-225. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2998223
Haynes, Audrey A., and Sarah G. Murray. 1998. Why Do the News Media Cover Certain Candidates More than Others? The antecedents of state and national news coverage in the 1992 presidential nomination campaign. American Politics Quarterly 26: 420-438. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9802600402
Haynes, Audrey, Paul-Henri Gurian, Michael H. Crespin, and Christopher Zorn. 2004. The Calculus of Concession: Media Coverage and the Dynamics of Winnowing in Presidential Nominations. American Politics Research 32:310-337. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673X03260353
Held, David. 1987. Models of Democracy. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Hess, Stephen. 1986. The Ultimate Insiders. Washington, DC: Brookings.
Hinckley, Katherine, and John Green. 1996. Fundraising in Presidential Nomination Campaigns: the Primary Lessons of 1988. Political Research Quarterly 49:693-718. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/449132 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/106591299604900401
Hucker, Charles W. 1979. Senators Stockpile Campaign Money Early. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. July 28, pp. 1539-41.
Kaufman, Burton I. 1993. The Presidency of James Earl Carter, Jr. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas.
Keech, William R., and Donald R. Matthews. 1976. The Party's Choice. Washington, DC: Brookings Institute.
Kiewiet, D. Roderick, and Langche Zeng. 1993. An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions. American Political Science Review 87:928-941. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2938824
Maisel, L. Sandy, and Walter J. Stone. 1998. Determinants of Candidate Emergence in U.S. House Elections: an Exploratory Study. Legislative Studies Quarterly 22:79-96. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/440292
May, Clifford D. 1987. Presidential Candidates Find No Cure for Absentee Legislator Syndrome. New York Times. November 17, p. A32.
Mayer, William G. 1996. Forecasting Presidential Elections. In In Pursuit of the White House, ed. William G. Mayer. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.
Mezey, Michael. 1971. Ambition Theory and the Office of Congressmen. Journal of Politics 32:563-579. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2128831
Norrander, Barbara. 2000. The End Game in Post-reform Presidential Nominations. Journal of Politics 62:999-1013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0022-3816.00043
Patterson, Thomas E. 1980. The Mass Media Election. New York: Praeger.
Peabody, Robert L., and Eve Lubalin. 1975. The Making of Presidential Candidates. Pp. 26-65 in The Future of the American Presidency, ed. Charles W. Dunn. Morris-town, NJ: General Learning Press.
Peabody, Robert L., Norman J. Ornstein, and David W. Rohde. 1976. The United States Senate as a Presidential Incubator: Many are Called but Few are Chosen. Political Science Quarterly 91:237-258. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2148411
Reiter, Howard L. 1985. Selecting the President: the Nominating Process in Transition. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Rohde, David. 1979. Riskbearing and Progressive Ambition: the Case of Members of the U.S. House of Representatives. American Journal of Political Science 23:1-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2110769
Robinson, Michael J. 1975. A Twentieth-Century Medium in a Nineteenth Century Legislature: the Effects of Television in the American Congress. Pp. 240-261 in Congress in Change, ed. Norman J. Ornstein. New York: Praeger.
Robinson, Michael J., and Kevin R. Appel. 1979. Network News Coverage of Congress. Political Science Quarterly 94:407-418. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2150450
Robinson, Michael J., and Margaret Sheehan. 1983. Over the Wire and On TV: CBS and UPI in Campaign .80. New York: Russell Sage.
Runkel, David R. 1989. Campaign for President: the Managers Look at .88. Dover, MA: Auburn House Publishing Company.
Salant, Jonathan D. 1995. Presidential Campaign Fundraising. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. August 19, p. 2488.
Schattschneider, E.E. 1960. The Semi Sovereign People. New York: Harcourt Brace.
Schlesinger, Joseph A. 1966. Ambition and Politics: Political Careers in the United States. Chicago: Rand McNally.
Schlesinger, Joseph A. 1975. The Primary Goals of Political Parties: a Clarification of Positive Theory. American Political Science Review 69:840-849. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1958393
Schumpeter, Joseph. 1942. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. London: Allen and Unwin.
Squire, Peverill. 1988. Who Gets National News Coverage in the U.S. Senate. Legislative Studies Quarterly 16:139-156. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/004478088016002001
Steger. Wayne P. 2000. Do Primary Voters Draw from a Stacked Deck? Presidential Nominations in an Era of Candidate-Centered Campaigns. Presidential Studies Quarterly 30:727-753. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0360-4918.2000.00141.x
Steger, Wayne P. 2002. A Quarter Century of Network News Coverage of Candidates in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. Journal of Political Marketing 1(1):91-116. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/J199v01n01_06
Steger, Wayne P., Randall E. Adkins, and Andrew J. Dowdle. 2004. Partisan Differences in the Exhibition Season and New Hampshire Primary. Political Research Quarterly 57:375-390. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/106591290405700303 http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3219848
Steger, Wayne P., John Hickman, and Kenneth Yohn. 2002. Candidate Competition and Attrition in Presidential Primaries, 1912-2000. American Politics Research 30:528-554. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673X02030005004
Stroud, Kandy. 1977. How Jimmy Won: the Victory Campaign from Plains to the White House. New York: William Morrow.
Von Drehle, David, and Brian Faler. 2003. Online Fundraising Boosts Dean Effort. Washington Post. July 1, p. A1.
Walker, Martin. 1996. The President We Deserve. New York: Crown Publishers.
Weaver, David H., and G. Cleveland Wilhoit. 1980. News media coverage of U.S. Senators in four Congresses, 1953-1974. Journalism Monographs #67.
Zuckman, Jill. 2003. Graveyard of White House Ambition: the U.S. Senate. Chicago Tribune. November 5, p. 5:1, 7.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with American Review of Politics agree to the following terms:
The Author retains copyright in the Work, where the term “Work” shall include all digital objects that may result in subsequent electronic publication or distribution.
Upon acceptance of the Work, the author shall grant to the Publisher the right of first publication of the Work.
The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License or its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:
Attribution: other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;
Non-Commercial: the materials may not be used for commercial purposes;
Share Alike: If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
with the understanding that the above condition can be waived with permission from the Author and that where the Work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license.
The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a pre-publication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (see The Effect of Open Access). Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.
Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.
The Author represents and warrants that:
the Work is the Author’s original work;
the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;
the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;
the Work has not previously been published;
the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and
the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.
The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 6 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.
